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Transitioning to Natural Refrigerants in India

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Background

 

Air-conditioners use a refrigerant to cool air, and CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons), HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons), and HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons) were subsequently used for this purpose. HCFCs replaced CFCs because their ozone depletion potential was lower, but eventually they were in turn replaced by HFCs, which have zero ozone depletion potential. But now HFCs are being phased out due to their high global warming potential (GWP), and with the recent negotiations regarding the HFC phase-down amendment of the Montreal Protocol, alternatives to HFCs are all the more important. These natural refrigerants’ GWP is near zero and are non-patented and highly energy-efficient; thus, adopting them will reduce costs and maximize energy and emissions savings.

 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classifies the refrigeration and air-conditioning (RAC) sector into the following sub-sectors:
• Stationary (domestic and commercial) air-conditioning
• Mobile air-conditioning (MAC)
• Commercial refrigeration
• Industrial refrigeration
• Transport refrigeration

Natural alternatives are available for almost all of the above sub-sectors, with the possible exception of mobile air-conditioning and transport refrigeration, and consist of propane (R290), isobutane (R600a), ammonia (R717), and carbon dioxide (R744).

 

Refrigerants' Global Warming Potential

Refrigerants’ Global Warming Potential

 

Research Objective

 

This study was conducted by CSE (Centre for Science and Environment) with the support of cBalance in order to determine the the current state of refrigerant use in the RAC sector in India and the role natural refrigerants can play, focusing on thee areas: the current scenario of refrigerant use in India, the projected refrigerant use by 2030, and the potential of natural refrigerants to replace fluorinated refrigerants during the HFC phase-down. The findings were obtained through the help of comprehensive reviews of available information, detailed market surveys and extensive expert interviews.

 

Current Scenario:

 

RAC Stock in 2015
The current stock of RAC equipment in India is estimated to be 125 million tons of refrigeration (TR). Stationary air conditioning (45 percent), mobile air-conditioning (16.5 percent), and domestic refrigeration (15.5 percent) account for almost 80 percent of India’s installed cooling capacity, as illustrated in Graph 1 below.

 

Installed Cooling Capacity in India in 2015

Sales in 2015
The current annual sales of RAC equipment in India are estimated to be 18.2 million TR. Sales in 2015 exhibit a similar pattern to the existing stock, with stationary air conditioning (44 percent), mobile air-conditioning (20 percent), and domestic refrigeration (13 percent) accounting for almost 80 percent of India’s added annual cooling capacity in 2015, as illustrated in Graph 2.

 

RAC Sector Sales in 2015

 

Refrigerant-wise classification of sales in 2015
HCFCs and HFCs account for 90 percent of the total sales in the RAC sector in India, with natural refrigerants accounting for the remaining 10 percent. In 2015, 44.26 per cent of RAC sales was based on HCFCs and 47.29 per cent was based on HFCs. Recently, the use of HCFCs has decreased in most sectors. HCFCs are most commonly used in residential air conditioning (60 percent) and commercial refrigeration (25 percent). The reduction in HCFC use has been accompanied by an increase in the use of HFCs. The highest HFC use is in the MAC sector (40 percent), followed by domestic (19 percent) and commercial (18 percent) refrigeration, as illustrated in Graph 3 below.

 

Sector-Wise Refrigerant Mix in 2015

 

Future Scenario:

 

Sales projections till 2030
India’s total installed cooling capacity is slated to increase five times to 610 million TR by 2030. As illustrated in Graph 4, the most significant increase in annual sales is projected for the domestic air-conditioning sector, amounting to an almost six-fold increase over the next 15 years. This will be driven by the rising standards of living in India along with the increase in temperatures caused by climate change. Mobile air conditioning and commercial air conditioning sectors are slated to a four-fold increase by 2030. Additionally, as per National Centre for Cold Chain Development, policies are being designed to increase use of cold storage, refrigerated vehicles, and pack houses in multiple folds in India. The requirement for cold chains is double the existing number and 6 times for refrigerated trucks, while around 70000 new pack houses are required.

 

Sales Projection 2015-2030

 

Refrigerant mix between 2015 and 2030
Sales of equipment using HFCs will increase by a factor of about seven and account for 75 per cent of total sales in terms of cooling capacity in a business-as-usual scenario. The sales of RAC equipment using natural refrigerants (mainly including R290, R600a, and R717), on the other hand, is slated to increase by more than a factor of 10 and account for 25 percent of total sales. This increase in natural refrigeration will be most prominently driven by the already mandated phase-out of HCFCs, as illustrated in Graph 5.

 

Refrigerant Mix Projection: 2015-2030

 

Potential of Naturals in India
The analysis shows that other than the MAC and transport refrigeration sectors, all other sectors can be converted to natural refrigerants with the help of currently available technologies. About 77 percent of the RAC sector, for example, can be converted to naturals by using currently available technologies, as illustrated in Table 1 below.

 

Potential of Natural Refrigerants in India

Potential direct GHG abatement with the help of a conversion to naturals
Prioritizing natural refrigerants will result in direct emissions saving in India of 50 million tonnes of CO2e per year by 2030. This accounts for more than 50 percent of the current emissions from HCFC and HFC use. The use of natural refrigerants with currently available technologies can make a significant reduction in emissions of high-GWP HFCs in India, as illustrated in Graph 6 below.

 

Potential GHG Reduction Through a Conversion to Natural Refrigerants

 

Way Forward

 

The analysis above demonstrates that India and other Article 5 countries have an opportunity to phase down a large portion on their HFC demand with the use of low-GWP, non-patented, natural refrigerants. Reaching this potential, however, will require enabling regulations, updated safety standards, and market incentives for first movers. The following actions can help India prioritize natural refrigerants in the HFC phase-down:

 

-Amending ISO 5149 – alter safety standards to facilitate wider use of R-290 (propane)

-Supplementing India’s energy efficiency enhancement initiatives – use of natural refrigerants increases energy efficiency, a goal the Indian government is trying to work toward through various initiatives

-Using flexibility to prioritize natural refrigerants – in the negotiations for an HFC phase-down amendment to the Montreal Protocol, parties have agreed on more flexibility in implementation of the agreed-upon phase-down schedule, which will help Article 5 countries cut costs while transitioning away from fluorinated refrigerants

 

The original report can be read here.